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Non-Tech : QQQ - Nasdaq 100 Trust
QQQ 611.67-1.9%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: davidk555 who wrote (523)4/6/2001 9:30:26 AM
From: OldAIMGuy   of 840
 
Hi DK, I follow some similar data on a weekly basis and saw an "easing" last week as far as the severity of the negative numbers.

Overall, (and my indicators are for longer periods than yours in general) my market risk indicator is in the middle of its Average Risk range. Obviously Average Risk doesn't mean no risk! The last Low Risk event happened in 1998 in the Fall and we had a record High Risk signal last March.

It's been frustrating to have this continuing Average Risk reading considering the bashing the markets have taken in recent months. Usually such activity would have taken my indicator back to bullish territory, but not this time.

The one single component that's been most troubling is my "Speculation" index. It, too, gave a brief (one week) bullish signal the first week of January. Right now it's still showing a bearish tendency in that there's still lots of stocks that are doing spectacularly well in the last quarter. Foster Wheeler, an old line engineering company is up something better than 200% in the last quarter. In fact there's thirteen companies with gains of more than 100% in Value Line right now. Amazing!

Now, many times in the past we've had very nice rallies without my indicator giving a "bullish" signal, but the strongest ones have come with such signals. So, I hope your analysis is right!!

I really enjoyed seeing inside your method. Thanks for taking the time to bring it here. If interested in my stuff, please look at
aim-users.com
for a description and historical graphs. This is a freebie site I maintain.

Best regards, Tom
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