Please understand that I am engaging in this speculation because the matter seems topical. I do not believe the US and China is collectively unthinking enough to fight as opposed to cooperate.
LOL! These strategists are funny. Is this serious?
<<In recent years China has been more active in attempting to spread its hegemony over ocean supply lines that lead from the Middle East through the Straits of Malacca.>>
Pot calling the kettle ...
<<conservatives ... see arming Taiwan as one step in spreading a military presence around southern Asia. Other nations situated along the routes are the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand>>
All powerful allies that can be brought down with relative ease ... two by inhouse Muslims, and one by phone call ("do you want to be fed to the Vietnamese" says the caller), and therefore they do not want to get involved in this pissing match.
<<Naturally China objects to American plans for beefing up Taiwan's military>>
Naturally, but will do more than object, they will react. China has been reacting to US for 50 years.
<<Major arms could include new destroyers ...>>
Taiwan will need fossil fuel to run these ships, and there won't be any, because Taiwan's income generators are moving to China, now. As I keep saying, the China-Taiwan integration is happening now, at the speed of commerce.
<<the super-duper Aegis missile system>>
7 year delivery cycle. Taiwan will have to line up and wait for it, in time to hand over to China. Do folks seriously believe one weapon system will overcome the lack of fuel and lack of strategic depth, in an environment of massive infiltration?
If China wanted to, can immediately dispatch 400,000 seas worthy fishing boats (China has 650k of these) filled with freedom seeking refugees requesting landing on Taiwan's shores. Now what?
<<Whether it's enough to resurrect the pathetic NASDAQ stock market is anybody's guess, but it certainly won't hurt any>>
Well, not quite ...
Message 15626406
But we really do not want to go this way.
<<The question now is how China's need for energy to fuel its modernization will affect global energy markets, environmental standards (or the lack thereof), and defense.>>
Or allow US to continue to use a disproportionate amount of the world's resources and spew same in pollution. You see, this is what I was talking about when talking about the "crux of the matter".
Message 15617885
<<Though the country is increasingly looking to hydroelectric and nuclear power, easy access to oil remains the key for China's move into the global economy.>>
Oil should be bought at market price, dictated by supply and demand. Even Texans understand that.
And now we have come full circle, back to the crux of the matter. SUVs? not for long.
At the end of day, one must decide whether one can arm and train Taiwan to defend itself for a few hours faster than Muslims can be mobilized and properly armed with inexpensive, portable, and effective goodies to, well, mob.
Israel knows the score. They live it. Saudi princes will retire to London while US marines bake in the desert? A few million dollars or RMB worth of properly tipped missiles in the right hands will surely keep US carriers out of the gulf.
Understand that the folks out there in the desert are loonies. They do not care about death. They in fact welcome it as we do Nasdaq 10,000.
And remember, nuclear parity is a given, and so we see why all hopes are on NMD.
No, this is not a good path.
Strategic partnership is starting to look pretty good.
Chugs, Jay |
