Onurbius and Thread,
Great buying opp at 5 coming up.
I wouldn't go that far, but I do believe that the down side risk has been increasing.
The first warning sign was last quarter's revenue, where royalty surged dramatically. I remember how Ron Ableman, the old CEO, used to call this sort of things as "digging into the cookie jar". My guess is that WRS has just done it once more.
On the macro-level, communications has been hit hard. Sales is nose diving in wireless, backbone, metro, and last-mile. This is WRS' biggest and fastest growing market. Allen takes a positive view point on this. He argues that earning squeeze will drive companies to use more off-shelf technologies. I think Allen's view is valid, but the result of this trend will not effect the short term numbers much. At this point, royalty and licensing drop offs from existing customers is the major concern.
Then there is the problem of telecom startups unfolding in a fast pace. This doesn't only stop licensing revenue for this hot group, it also creates a lot of extra capacity out there. Someone is going to pick up these Tornado seats in the grey market, just as you can buy brand new SUN servers and Cisco Routers on EBay.
There is also the Elmore Effect. Elmore is known for buying and selling WIND at critical junctures. He has been selling WIND in his family and trustee accounts. This is a bad sign. Elmore knows when to buy and sell. At least, this is true in the past.
I hope I am wrong that WRS will come up with good numbers and give good guidance, but signs are pointing to a more negative direction.
Just a word of caution to everyone. I still like the long term strategy of this company.
Khan |
