Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: LLCF who wrote (91208)	4/6/2001 6:27:37 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) of 436258

What would you use? I guess I'm trying to show that you could be right about your assumptions and still have the market go against you. Not that we could have a horrific recession and the market still goes up, but that you could be absolutely right about the speculative bubble but we could have a short sharp recession instead of a protracted one because the FED goes into overtime pumping which starts prices in the market back up. In this scenario the market would recover and your bets on the downside wouldn't play out. (it would get inflation and your gold moving though) So in this instance, you are right but the measuring stick, money, says you are wrong. Is this a little clearer? Those who bet against the bubble in '99 lost plenty of dough, but were they right in their assertions? They had history on their side. I tend to think that the market tells me where it's going, not the other way around. I try not to be smart. There was no one smarter then those LTCM guys. It's better to be dumb, persistent and lucky......and most of all flexible.

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