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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 234.37+0.2%Dec 2 3:59 PM EST
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To: GST who wrote (123144)4/7/2001 1:15:32 AM
From: schrodingers_cat  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
>I am working with people in telecom on a project -- and they do not see an early end to the capital spending mess. We are likely to see problems persist for 2 or 3 more years. That is why these stocks (equipment vendors) continue to get sold off like they had the plague.

What worries me about optics is that the performance of the equipment doubles, and presumably the price of the equipment halves, every nine months or so. So if the demand for new capacity plateaus, maybe the equipment makers' revenues halve every nine months or so too. The optics guys could end up innovating their businesses into oblivion.

And if the demand for new capacity goes away for a few years because of overbuilding, then the prospects for those optics businesses are grim.

Edit : BTW SCMR's warning was worse than ARBA's!!! That ought to make some people think.
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