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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 339.88+0.3%Dec 24 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (987)4/7/2001 4:00:30 AM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (1) of 10065
 
Thinking about possibilities for the economy and he market. I think I've been pretty clear that I am in the recession camp at this point based on such things as the ECRI analysis and business spending even on IT productivity enhancers hit a wall sometime a while back. Consumer spending had been fair but increasing layoffs, major stock market losses, and fairly high credit card debt is probably going to put the kabosh on that as well. Falling rates and refinancing has been an offsetting factor recently but that will only go so far.

What then is most important for market timing. In the past I believe the market moved up about 6 months prior to clear economic recovery. We also know the first year of a presidential cycle have often been relatively poor while the second year or what Bob calls "off presidential election years" has a bit of a remarkable record of being times when major bottoms have been made. It will be interesting to see how Bob's indicators are moving along with watching the economy and the market. One reason I wouldn't mind the Dow falling into bear territory is I would feel more comfortable if a recession was more clearly being discounted into stock prices.

Marc
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