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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: Boplicity who wrote (12392)4/7/2001 11:39:50 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 13572
 
BoPeep, funny thing about layoffs and stock prices

when the climax timing is known regarding layoffs, and the depth and breadth of the layoffs is well understood with consensus, then...

the announced layoffs tend to be good for raising stock prices,
since they reflect lowering of corporate operation costs

but this economic and investment environment STILL contains considerable denial about the extent of layoffs, how widespread the list of companies will be, the big numbers involved, AND the senior management levels whacked

as long as this denial persists, announced layoffs will cause the stock prices to DECLINE,
since the undercurrent is one of "worsening economic slowdown"
the investment community just 10 days ago was largely buying the bullshit "2nd Half Recovery"
news of deeper layoffs has now only begun to dismiss this nonsensical notion

I predict we have one more spurt of public opinion on 2nd Half Recovery
a string of favorable news will somehow appear
perhaps based on distorted controlled corrupt media
perhaps based on fortunate happenings in an isolated corner

as Welch and GE go, so goes Main Street

short the rallies
the biggest declines coming will be S&P and Dow

did we nail CIEN or not?
we said "heading into 30's soon" back in early March
been there, done that, and done it good
we warned the sheep, but many got sheared anyway
/ jim willie
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