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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: StockOperator who wrote (5265)4/7/2001 3:22:25 PM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
Some fork thoughts for this weekend

OK .. so we have had a day of short squeeze and a day of retrace.
A few folks decided to start a run on the futures after the bell on Wednesday. Some stops were triggered to continue the move up. Cash had to be held back until the 4:30 AM time frame where someone had been selling our markets on a regular basis. The selling showed up and was offset at once by buying. The selling backed off to wait and see. After prices holding for an hour or two, some of the early bird folks started covering shorts into the open of the markets on Thursday. Cascaded from there.

All of that effort and action only succeeded in driving the SPX to the mid black tine here:
homestead.com
Then yesterday the mid tine threw the index back again ..

It's interesting that the red fork seems to be acting as support while the black as resistance. Since this pattern is tightening, I'll be watching closely to see which fork wins out.

Additionally .. there is now a place to draw a small ascending fork on the SPX chart. I think that it is to thin to hold for long.

Last weekend I noticed a small fork in the NDX. homestead.com
That was wasted pretty quickly. If I use the start of the center and upper tines and the new low as the lower the resulting fork is descending.

However, with the action on Thursday it just might be forming another right now. For that it would be nice to see it pull back enough to:
form a wide channel fork that could have a chance to last for a while.
And the fork not be so steep as to be outrageous (the NDX is not going to run up at rate of 9% per day for the next month<g>)

A thin or very sharply ascending fork would fail quickly still within some of the large descending forks that are still very much in play.
homestead.com
homestead.com

I took a look at the SPX new fork.
It seems to me that for it to last will require this new NYA fork to hold. homestead.com

This NYA fork would need to stay valid while the NDX was forming it's ascending fork in order for the new SPX ascending fork to stay valid. This would require the NDX to pull back but not hard enough to trash the SPX fork.

I do not think that this new NYA fork will hold. It could well break down on Monday. However it might hold.

This could then form a bottoming consolidation pattern .. (and the question is "are we there yet?")

For the next day or two the NYA fork holds the key. If it fails then so will the new SPX fork. At that moment there will be no ascending forks left in the indexes (again). Only the down forks will be left ..
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