Steve: On your TA, sadly I agree. I'm also unsure of this gorilla news
1) I don't use a lot of mathematical indicators for my TA - I am reasonably accurate using my experience from the school of hard knocks (futures market) and occasionally applying a loose 3-day rule.
Yesterday looks like a typical bull trap to me - the key point, IMO and as you mentioned, is the VOLUME - WHERE was the VOLUME??, 100,000+ shares was essentially NOTHING ...
Call it a bear flag, call it a dead cat bounce, call it a bull trap - it all looks the same to me, unless (UNLESS) we can close higher today on some decent volume, I think we're going to test that $5 5/16ths, and I would agree that the shorts will continue to hold the upper hand. A prolonged drop to $5.00-$5.50 is very possible.
2) About last night's news on a new gorilla - I agree with Larry Bru., why would the gorilla want to make this news public? IMO, the new gorilla has either finished his buying (and has helped support us to $6 3/4), or HAS NOT and WILL NOT start buying until there is a PR and/or we're back around $10.
In both of these points, I hope I am wrong - I'm still long in a big way on this stock, and holding for the long term. My threshold of pain is very high - but I would still hate to see it tested.
At the end of the day, we need NEWS from IPM - PERIOD. Until they put out a new PR, I think there is a lot more nail biting to come. Hope I'm wrong ...
Paul Nicholson |
