Last Saturday, I wrote "the market should poke a hole higher early on Monday [which it did], and then start a reversal which fails to reach new lows [what it did]. The market then goes higher, BEFORE the new round of failure appears [what it's doing now.] A classic tree-shaking ceremony heading north, loaded with bear scares, extending into the second week of April [which is this week].
In the past week, I have not changed my mind much from last Saturday's post. Although I now think the move higher may extend beyond this week. Here's my most recent commentary, and a chart which visualizes it:
The Preferred Series continues building the structure of a s/t correction higher, in a bear market. Although I currently project this as a horizontal, ascending triangle, peaking above 1227.00 Cash SPX on the 23rd or 24th of April, I realize that it could be a more traditional move that pinpricks above 1200.00 Cash SPX in the middle of this week, and then reverses for a run at the basement.
I still see the bottom of the market at around 1030.00 Cash SPX in the middle of May. But if we reverse for a run at the lows this week, instead of on the 23rd or 24th of April, then the low might be closer to 1000.00.
That is a launching pad, not to all-time highs (which I currently believe are years away), but rather to good gains by September or October ... gains which challenge the old highs and run into the psychological brick wall of "I have been given a second chance, and I'm getting out while the getting's good."
That investor psychology will remain, I believe, an insurmountable obstacle to all-time highs.
Here's a chart covering the next few weeks ... trade safe. sellnow.net |
