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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 109.23

+3.7%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (67298)	4/7/2001 7:34:11 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) of 116779

<I would like the USD to settle into a trading range between here 115 and 100.> Ron, you are dreamin, just like you were in thinking that the Fed would produce another soft landing, when I told you that was the exception not the rule. Your Mary Poppins Dollar Bubble won't last very long either because what the U.S. has failed to do, in the words of Mr Duisenberg, is to "build up a sound institutional framework based on monetary stability and fiscal sustainability". The inflation - as measured by the 14% annualised growth of U.S. M3 since January 2001 - cannot be sustained. The increasing issuance of new corporate debt coupled with the decreasing creditworthiness of the corporations issuing this debt cannot be sustained. The ability of Americans to go on servicing debts while the value of their collateral dwindles and their employment prospects worsen cannot be sustained. And because none of this can be sustained, the rise of the U.S. Dollar in the world's currency markets cannot be sustained either. There is no telling when the Dollar will begin to keel over. It is not possible to predict when enough individuals will either come to their senses or succumb to a rising fear that the U.S. economy is NOT going to recover this time. The one thing that is certain is that the longer the U.S. continues to cut rates, and the longer the ECB refrains from following suit, the closer that day comes. As the investment of last resort, Gold needs to get a bear market in EVERYTHING else (including at least a downdraft on the Dollar itself) before a US $$$ Gold bull market can firmly establish itself. But establish itself it will. All the economic fundamentals are almost in place for it to happen.

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