SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: American Spirit who wrote (5306)4/7/2001 9:40:56 PM
From: Square_Dealings  Read Replies (2) of 52237
 
People see the prices down so much and they think some stocks are a "deal" like CSCO for example.

If you do some math you will find that it is significantly overvalued by many measures at the current price.

Take the last earnings of %1.67B (26 wks). Give them a generous estimate for the next year at a rate of 70% of that so (1.67x.7)x2 = 2.34B next year. This is probably on the high side since orders have fallen off a cliff, not a 30% reduction as for this estimate.

Then take the current market cap of $159.8B. So going forward the forward generous estimate PE ration is 68

If the PE ratio is 68 and the company is actually growing at a minus 30% a year, its not a good "deal".

CSCO is trading 5x book value and some assets are going to get written off as they exit unprofitable businesses that they acquired back when their stock was hot. There are also many questionable accounting methods that have been used to disguise balance sheets and income statements, not just by CSCO but by almost every major tech co. in the US. So who knows what the true assets/liabilities are.

Anyway I think many people will become more familiar with fundamental analysis before this current downtrend is complete. To me CSCO might become attractive at least half of its current price, when growth does return I dont expect it to be in the 60% range again, ever.

good luck
M.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News