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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.31

-3.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (45227)	4/7/2001 10:41:50 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Ian, from the Miller interview... >Q: So how do you expect this year to turn out? A: Who knows? We are not in the business of trying to predict the capital markets. Let's just say it is highly unusual for the S&P to be down two consecutive years in a row. That last happened in 1973-74. The previous time before that was 1939-40-41. The only other time that you had multiple down years in a row was the Great Depression, 1929-32. What does it take to get the S&P down two years in a row? It takes the Great Depression. It takes global World War. It takes a period like 1973-74, a time of double-digit interest rates for the first time, oil prices rising significantly, war in the Middle East, recession and a constitutional crisis with Watergate.< What do we have now? We have the economy slowing and profits under pressure. It's hard to come up with anything aside from that. We have surpluses, tax cuts, a Fed lowering rates and low inflation. We have had a year of a down S&P and we are now three months into a new year and the S&P is down again and it sure looks as if all that is well discounted. What is not discounted is an improvement. I would be very surprised if the overall S&P were not up as we exit this year. That means that we are going to have a pretty good next nine months. I would be less surprised if the Nasdaq had a second year down in a row, because it was so expensive going into the year 2000. But neither would I be surprised to see the Nasdaq up 5% to 10% by the end of the year.< I like the crisp thinking. Gottfried

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