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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10888)4/8/2001 2:45:16 AM
From: elmatador   of 12823
 
What happens inside a real company? It is full of human beings. And they act as such. Lets say that 3G is up and coming. How about 2g GSM? Actually there is a lot of people involved on that too. Would they just early retire or go look for another job?

They don't do that they hang on to what they've done in the past ten years. This is why I think Lucent is in deep trouble. LU didn't phase out businesses that were going down. The guys who were selling stuff for fixed line didn't want to get their caps and move on. No. They continue selling the same stuff to CLECs propped by vendor financing.

For the management of LU was very difficult to take the stars -who have been bringing home the bacon since they were ATT- and chopped their heads off. The company was very new and they didn't know much how things could be steered once they come to tough decisions. (CSCO is going to sufffer a lot exactly because of that! wait and you will see).

Back to the point I was trying to make: Even within wireless vendors there will be some impedances to shift forom GSM to 3G.

Right now GSM 2G is being sold like crazy in the developing world -note my PM to you a couple of days ago- the stars that are helping pay the salaries of the 3G people (who are not selling anything) will have to move over and make room for the 3G crowd. (It can be in ten years or 2 years but they will have to go away)

It doesn't mean that 2G pelo have to be fired after 3G kicks in. It means that they will be removed from the driver's seat. It is different technology conducted by different people within the companies. They will have their R&D budgets cut. They will have to have smaller organizations. They will lose power. The 2G crowd will not give in that easy.

This is all happening right now inside the vendor companies. (only that they are Finns, Germans and Swedish who are not very much now as being loquacious) When I read some news about this business I always have all that in the corner of my mind.

Unfortunately this is not what people like to hear. You can't quantify it. You can't present it to analysts. But it is in there and affects this business.
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