RE: GG, where are you?
posted to: George Says!
originally posted to:
poster: gg
date: 4/4/01 8:00:28 PM
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I am in my office where I will be most of the night working on the new
GTR, which I and Charlie Burger have been researching for the last two
weeks, both here and across the country, since OFC. OFC was was an
amazing pinata of paradigmatic products, but as far as I am concerned
Avanex's was the best. Believe me, if I had not promised otherwise, I would
put half my stock market investment into Avanex. But I am a risk taker, with
a variety of venture investments and a substantial holding in my own
company (which seems to have gone off the track in my absence with the
amazing $2000 webcasting gaffe). Others may wish to make more measured
investments in Avanex as a paragon of the telecosmic model.
If you believe that the current state of the market represents a "correction,"
however, you should know that my recommendations are based on a
different view. I think the crash reflects a disastrous set of policy errors
which resulted in draining much of the discretionary capital from the
frontiers of the economy where telecosm companies such as Avanex and
probably Corvis lead. In general, the lesson of OFC is that these companies
have achieved a decisive edge over established firms in the crucial new
arena of all optical products based on the connectivity model, with
thousands of wavelengths. In this environment, it turns out to be devilishly
difficult for the mega-companies such as Lucent and Nortel to keep up. With
fanatical focus, Corning is doing better. If Lucent continues to implode,
though, Nortel for all its errors may well make commercial gains over the
relatively short run where the GTR doesn't play. |
