VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Venkie who wrote (35497)	4/8/2001 12:47:26 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (2) of 65232

<<The bears are in the same place the bulls were at Naz 5000 ... Go to the bear thread and ask how many were there for Dell..Aol..Qcom>> That's an interesting comment. Personally I was 120% margined long on tech stocks this time last year. I went to cash and took up residence in the CFZ a couple months later. All my buckz were in semi stocks, which held up OK for a while. So I came out OK, in fact I retired on the profts. A lot of us over at CFZ were raging bulls during the big tech mania. My guess: the Nasdaq for bears is now like it was for bulls around early 99. It's been deflated some, but has yet to do its inevitable over-reaction to significantly undervalued (on a historical P/E or P/S basis). For example, AMAT bottomed in 1996 with a P/S ratio around 1.2 I believe. It's still 2-3 times overvalued by those standards. I believe the Nasdaq will have to drop below 1000 for a short time before this is truly over. Bubbles are like that. The non-tech part of the SP500 ran up 200% from 1994-98, while GDP ran up maybe 30%, and it HAS NOT DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY YET. The chart for that is at grantsinvestor.com. So I think the Dow has hardly started its mean-reversion process yet. Consumer spending is the rate-determining step in how fast that happens.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next