Gottfried, For the past 5 years at least, every year the S&P has been up, the Naz has been up. I think all the way back to the beginning of the Naz index this tended to be true, but don't have a chart that goes back that far. So maybe his logic means that the Naz has a good chance of being up as well. Also, I like his argument about the telcom stocks. Somebody else said the same thing recently, and argued that we will look back and realize it was stupid to think that slowdown in that industry would last a long time. Hope that logic is correct.
FWIW the latest Money mag suggests that AMAT could go to a P/S of 2, in other words go to around 25 or so at the low. They also suggest that Intel could go to a PE of 20, based on this years earnings estimates that would be quite a hit. But on the SI homepage there is a Street.com link to a Tom Kurlak article where he says he is bullish about INTC at this point. Also I recall a Forbes article on March 5th where a value investor argued that INTC was cheap at 34. Also, with regards to AMAT, there were all the recommendations for it when it was up there around 50 (two CBS MarketWeek people & that Barrons article on AMAT). Clear as mud? At least to me it is. All this crazy volatility and radically different views of AMAT, INTC, and other techs argues for being more of a trader I guess. Perhaps that is how most here are doing it, not sure.
John |
