Technology trends..Higher oil prices are a threat to producers with huge reserves!!
(A news analysis for 'Middle Eastern press')
If someone asks me that what are your three best ideas amidst this carnage in the street, I woud say TXN,
NOK IBM and add GE to the list. Much has been written on these pages about the Internet/Technology/NASDAQ
Revolution. The current bad news on earnings expectations in the Tech sector has been grossly
overstated. This Revolution will intensify in the coming months and lead to a second leg of this bull
market.
Hopefully, six months from now, the current worries and frustrations with the stock market will be a distant
memory. Remember 1998 and 1999, when Wall Street was touting the profitless dot-coms that soared to $200 a
share? Two hundred and seventy of them have crashed to zero since January of 2000.
While theInternet/Technology sector will remain the major driving force of the economy and the stock
market during this decade, another Revolution has begun to unfold in the Energy sector. Over the next
ten years, the oil industry will evolve from a politically driven market by OPEC to a free market
driven by supply and demand. Today, OPEC's public strategy is to constantly maintain the price of oil at
the low end of the $25 to $30 a barrel range have solved OPEC's cash flow problem, but oil at $30 a
barrel, even $25 a barrel, will accelerate the implementation of pollution-free synthetic fuels.
Implementation will happen first in the U.S. and then in Europe and Asia, where pollution is much worse than
in Los Angeles or New York.
The coal industry virtually disappeared because union leaders forced higher coal prices and timed strikes to
occur in the winter when coal was needed to heat homes and power factories. The world decided that they have
enough of the cola and have evolved from coal to oil to natural gas, and finally to a mixture of synthetic
fuel that is cheaper, cleaner and more reliable than anything currently in use.
OPEC unfortunately using the same tactics Coal Unions in the past used on the coal industry. OPEC is
expediting the next evolution in energy and it is underway in a big way. Oil at $30 a barrel, even $25 a
barrel, will accelerate the implementation of pollution-free synthetic fuels. When Sheikh Zaki
Yemeni says that age of Oil will end, it is not because the oil will finish, but alternate resources
will leave a lot of undesired oil in the ground because of future lack of demand.
That is the biggest threat oil rich countries like Saudi and Kuwait should worry about, expensive oil may
like expensive coal may be left in the ground in next 10 years. The result will be the same: By the end of
the decade, most cars and all buses will be powered by long-lasting fuel cells. Fortunes will be made by
owning fuel cell and synthetic energy stocks during the coming decade. No, they are not yet profitable,
but the big winners will be.
In the past, oil prices would rise in the summer along with gasoline prices as Americans used their vehicles
for summer vacations. Oil prices would decline in the fall, followed by higher heating oil prices in the
winter. Predictably oil prices would then decline in the spring and then repeat the up and down price
cycle. It may be possible that OPEC have succeeded in permanently raising the price of oil. OPEC is now
quietly adjusting the production of oil with the objective of maintaining a steady price of $30 a
barrel. Gone are the days when oil would fall to $10 a barrel in the spring or fall because of
overproduction.
The Bush Administration has already taken the beginning steps to make appropriate changes in U.S.
energy policy.While supporting a policy of increasing gas and oil production in the U.S., other energy
sources will be strongly supported by both President Bush and his new Energy Secretary.
In the coming months, you will be hearing more about fuel sources that will decrease and, possibly end our
dependence on OPEC oil. Ballard Power Nasdaq (BLDP) is the fuel cell technology leader. At this moment,
Ballard is not yet profitable; and hence, not yet viable as an investment. However, profits are coming;
it is only a matter of time. Eventually, fuel cells will substantially reduce our imports of OPEC oil.
DaimlerChrysler's (NYSE-DCX) profits are currently under assault from Chrysler's problems.
However, DCX is the largest producer of fuel cell buses and every city that purchased DCX's test
versions has ordered more buses. Eventually, the diesel powered bus will be a museum relic of the past.
It will be years before DCX can meet the global demand for pollution-free fuel cell buses. Equally important, Ford Motor is moving quickly to mass produce a fuel cell automobile. Other companies are also spending
billions to produce the pollution-free "Car of the Future."
Japan is racing to beat Ford to the marketplace with a pollution-free automobile. Every major oil company is
now concentrating on the production of hydrogen to meet enormous future demand from the hydrogen fuel
cell. Syntroleum Nasdaq (SYNM) is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based company that has developed and
successfully tested a process that combines natural gas and hydrogen to produce pollution-free gasoline
and pure drinkable water. Syntroleum's process is portable. You can move it anywhere as long as natural
gas is available. Syntroleum Nasdaq (SYNM) Exxon also has the process, but it is not portable.
Engineers say Exxon could build a pollution-free gasoline processing plant in the desert next to a
natural gas well and use the water to turn the desert green with a living oasis. Syntroleum has signed an
agreement with Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL) to buy and resell Syntroleum's synthetic fuel to its customers.
Syntroleum and Fuel Cell Energy are not yet profitable. However, fortunes will be made by owning
such companies when they become profitable.
With the strong support of the Bush Administration and the new Energy Secretary, profitability for these
energy alternative companies will be sooner rather than later. |
