Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (91544)	4/8/2001 3:15:07 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) of 436258

I tend to agree with Fleck, Hickey, Bronson, Tice and the Comstock boyz right now. As Fleck says, most market timer types are totally mis-reading the situation because they have never lived through a bubble collapse. IMO some of the best market timers, like Don Hays and Bob Brinker, got the first part right. But they now believe that because the market has collapsed so far so fast, it absolutely, positively, must have a major interlude rally before it goes down further. To time the rally, they try to use technical indicators which were developed using no data from bubble-deflation events. Therefore, their trusty indicators no longer work in the current situation. I don't think this is necessarily true. Non-tech was not a bubble, it was just a way overvalued bull market top. Tech was a historic bubble and is now merely a way-overvalued bull market top. So, ignore the bubble part for a moment. Situation: we have an economic downturn which is rapidly becoming a recession. The stock market is at a way-overvalued bull market top. And it's going to rally from here? Anything could happen of course, but I'm really dubious about that idea.

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