>What's your take on how the whole HDTV game is going
>to be played out?
Digital TV will grow to be very big business, and will intersect computers in major ways. MSFT is beginning to bet big on this emerging technology, suggesting that Bill Gates not only sees it as a huge source of future business, but perhaps as a necessary emerging market for continued sizable growth. If true, then investors need to view MSFT as being more risky than generally acknowledged.
The exact form, or even forms, of Digital TV is not yet clear enough for MSFT to bet the house. So far Digital TV by any name has disappointed at every turn, and probably will continue to disappoint at least investors for some time to come. Most of us instantly envision all sorts of interactive, DVD-like goodies using some sort of a TV/PC/NC/STB. Actually, I think cable modems offering high-speed internet connection and access to digital broadcast TV will dominate the market in the beginning, followed by more exotic offerings in future years. The biggest problem is putting in place an adequate infrastructure that can support everything we envision at a reasonable cost. Personally, I have trouble even guessing at ways to handle all the technical problems on the server and network side, and the client side is not easy either.
There is plenty here from for WIND to make a lot of money: from high-volume cable modems and other application-specific devices, to low-volume, experimental exotic devices. But I would worry about MSFT being able to extract $billions from early adopters.
As for Windows CE versus commercial RTOS offerings, MSFT is in a poor position technically, but a powerful position by dent of their marketing muscle and willingness to purchase the market. At some point, MSFT should purchase an RTOS company and get both factors on their side - although they are living proof that technical adequacy, not superiority, is sufficient for success.
Suppose MSFT does dominate Digital TV, to the point that all STBs and WebTVs, etc are implemented using Windows CE. What happens to WINDs efforts in this arena? Nothing bad. There are so many internet/TV devices that will be built, including cable modems and the NC, that there will be gobs of business for WIND. Also, the resulting build-out of the internet and cable networks will play right into WINDs hands, even if they never surfaced on the client side.
Like China, the faster MSFT can help develop this market, the better it will be for WIND.
Allen |
