How about we SHOULD take them seriously. This is the only way of dissuading them from idle threats. And also one of these times they just might mean it; better safe than sorry.
What do we gain by letting the Chinese jerk our chain with words? If we see a significant military buildup in provinces facing Taiwan, or a significant movement of airlift/sealift resources to that area (the Chinese military is cumbersome, and preparations for such an invasion would be extensive and prolonged) we should take that seriously. I see no reason to get fired up over words. Policy should remain consistent, as much as possible, no matter what words come out of Beijing; reacting to every statement allows them to control us.
You are also saying they lie and cannot be trusted about important matters. Why deal with them then?
I don't trust any government, including that of the US. We deal with them because they are there, and we can't avoid dealing with them.
Those nukes are for internal use?
The Chinese nuclear force is small, primitive, and has no imaginable use beyond deterring a nuclear attack or nuclear blackmail. A country with large and potentially aggressive rivals, both of which have massive nuclear arsenals, has little choice but to maintain a deterrent force or submit to foreign dictation.
Wait? What would make them think they could ever accomplish it without force?
They would have to wait even if their intentions were totally aggressive: the Chinese military does not now have the capacity to invade Taiwan with any assurance of success. Don't believe all the talk you hear about "massive" buildups; when you look at the actual additions, the buildups seem a lot more modest.
The current US government would have to be history; more likely, the current Chinese government will fall first.
Many in the US insist on anticipating a dramatic "fall" for the Chinese government, and even on setting that as a policy objective. This is an emotionally satisfying goal, but given the chaos caused by the Russian fall, and given that China presents no immediate threat to our security, I see no reason not to sit back and let the internally driven changes continue. China's government may or may not fall, but in either event it will be very different in a decade.
It often strikes me as odd that Americans seem more concerned about China's intentions toward Taiwan than Taiwanese do. I suspect that one reason for this perception gap is that Americans are largely unaware of the degree and speed at which Chinese society is changing, something that Taiwanese see very clearly. The changes at the street level over the last decade are staggering; the country is hardly recognizable as the same place. Change in government is slower, but it will come: the current generation of Chinese leaders is very old, and will fade away eventually. Asians tend to feel that the status quo is advantageous to anti-communist forces, and that the longer other countries wait, the less aggressive and more engaged China's leadership will become. If you look closely at what China is, instead of what analysts and leaders say it is, this view makes a lot of sense. The country is changing, probably as fast as it can change without major disorder. Why mess with a process that works to our advantage?
Macao, maybe. Hong Kong? That would risk war with Britain and maybe the US.
The British could not have defended Hong Kong and would not have tried to take it back; China is not Argentina. The US would not have gone to war over it.
I should add that I do not believe for a minute that the Bush administration's aggressive rhetoric toward China and plans for aid to Taiwan have anything to do with sending a message to China, or with protecting Taiwan. The message being sent is to Americans, and domestic politics are the overriding concern. Bush's handlers want him to be seen standing up to the wicked furriner, playing the macho role, throwing some weight around, ignoring allies, and generally playing Lone Ranger. Americans love this stuff; it makes them feel good. Whether or not it is good long-range policy remains to be seen. |
