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Technology Stocks : audiocodes ltd. (AUDC)

AUDC 9.660

+3.6%

Nov 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Dan Hamilton who wrote (132)	4/9/2001 9:55:37 AM
From: Arik T.G.	of 229

Dan, >>Good stocks can be taken out and shot with the rest in a bear market. I guess some of them already were. >>What's your current take on the markets over the next year or so? The Naz is still expensive, but was too directional in the past few months (look at the 13d MA drawing a strait line on the log chart), so a longer (a few weeks) correction up is in order. I don't like the semis. They are as cyclical as the auto industry. Y2k was a peak year, and they should trade at no more then x6 earnings on that year. Even if the economical trough will turn to be shallow (not my opinion) the semis will suffer. INTC had a $12.8B cashflow from operations in 2000. A generous multiplier of 6 gives a value of $76.8B for the operations and current assets minus total liabilities adds another $10.5B. Total is $87B for the company - almost $13 /share. So INTC is still a SELL IMO, start accumulating around $16 (I'll give them 20% premium for leadership and management) and Buy @$11. MSFT is a riddle to me. I cannot figure a fair price for it. CSCO is a Buy @11 and start accumulating here sounds like a good idea. IMO in the telecom equipment biz y2k was also an exception, but there is, I believe, a difference. It looks to me like this is still growth sector, but last year's overheating will be compensated by a correction to the trend this year. I have a bigger problem with the big old economy stocks. The are still valued under the best possible scenario with no economic risk factored in. So I'm bullish the NASDAQ for a few weeks, but still looking for it to grind lower later on. However I'm bearish the SPX, with particular attention to the likes of KO and CL. Hey I was there first with CL Message 15524094 ATG

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