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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation
WDC 163.26+3.5%12:59 PM EST
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To: Road Walker who wrote (20025)4/9/2001 6:33:14 PM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (2) of 60323
 
"Fortune missed the last SanDisk c.c."

That's only a little funny, John.

Frank Calderoni suggested that we would probably equal
Q1 2000 EPS, which would be about a 50% fall from Q4
of 2000. Then came the news that they were expecting
a break-even Q1. Is anyone else out there bracing for
break even Q2 and Q3 as well? There will also be an
accounting hit when the UMC shares are repriced, just to
make matters worse. I hope the market can look past that
one-time occurence and at real EPS.

I noticed that SanDisk products were priced with a $20 mail-in
rebate this weekend at Best Buy and there was still an awful
lot of PNY product to be sold. I think we are about to take
a bath on inventory items left from Q4 at this rate.

I try to remain positive about SDMC sales, but the newest Palms
aren't going to be available until May, so we may not see any
significant revenues until Q3 of this year. To my knowledge
no other "consumer mass market" items have been announced yet.

I also wonder if Lexar is stealing our thunder by going after
the CF assemblers first. This could backfire by forcing people
to purchase SanDisk's non-infringing controller technology or
it may lead them to sign licenses preferentially with Lexar.
Right now SanDisk only has a NOR flash controller on the shelves
and the annual report lists the development of the NAND controller
as a business risk. I find it hard to believe that we will have
NAND flash pouring out of Dominion soon and no proven NAND-based
controller to utilize. I find the annual report difficult in
this regard.

Similarly the lack of any info on '987 licensing plans sticks out like
a sore thumb. I couldn't find any concrete information about
any upcoming deals. Moreover, the Simple Technology annual report
doesn't list '987/CompactFlash licensing with SanDisk as a risk
to their profit margins. Is it possible that Lexar is going to
beat us to the punch with these CF assemblers too???

I am very puzzled.

Aus
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