I am also pleased with AMZN earnings forecasts, I may be back sooner than I thought. But time is now of the essence, and AMZN has to prove itself in TIME whereas the brick and mortars do not. AMZN weakness right now is the higher cost of OIL, as in delivery. The Brick and Mortars look at it this way, people will drive their own cars anyway, and will go to the store, at no cost to the Brick and Mortars, whereas the Clicks, like AMZN have to add these additional higher costs into the price, and that hurts because there is no economy of scale. The cost of shipping a full semi-truck is the same for AMZN and Brick and mortars, but the costs of your own car is seen as less than the added costs of those multiple UPS/FEDX etc delivery methods. If AMZN fails, it will be more due to OIL than to its corporate bonds or failure to create its modern automated distribution warehouses on time on plan according to the business model. OIL will only be lower when Greenspan lowers federal reserve rates. OIL is OPEC's only currency, just as interest rates is the US DOLLAR's only valuation of our currency. Which stubborn billy goat gruff will budge first? I say OPEC because Greenspan is a plain sadistic failure and monetary policy tyrant who cares not that $5 Trillion dollars of the US future has been destroyed by him and his fellow fed failures who only care about bailing out the IMF and corupt asian banks and Communist Chinese slave labor and the WTO and importers instead of US exporters. When we see that, OPEC will fold first, and find another solution to the Greenspan problem, probably not one we will like.
I am,
Truly your$,
-Crystal Ball |
