Hi Roger,
As I said many times before, TI is a fine company. The problem is one do not want to overpay even for a good company (Warren Buffet stressed this point many times). The reason we put our hard earned many in a company is to make some money not because we like a company or the CEO. Believe me, they do not like any of us. A lot of that has been talked on this thread are "what could happen etc.", and there is no concrete evidence that they will happen. As you said HDD could be a big market, but who knows ? I agree DSP is fairly gib market, but there is no evidence that TXN will be able to dominate the market. As mentioned by somebody earlier, the DSP market is very fragmented, each company has to have its niche, an niche market will not be good enough to drive TI to the kind of profit some people is expecting. As for Intel, it has been making a lot of money and it is making money. One do not need to rely on wishful thinking or "vision" kind of thing to justify its current stock price. However, in the case of TI, with a projected 97 earning of about $3.65 and a stock price of close to $90, I would say its valuation is on the high side. Therefore, the downside risk is much higher than any upside potential. I am not even sure that it is a good move for TI to sell its defense electronics unit, there might be a lot of money to be made in that business in the future with defense modernization. |
