I don't have any visibility, either.
So, I'm taking a "show me" attitude toward the recovery (in the economy, and in the semi industry). Last summer and fall, I thought we would get that phantom "soft landing", and I thought I saw some "good valuations", and they have since evaporated, along with a big chunk of my wealth. I will give up the first big bounce off the bottom, I will pay for certainty. But I will not catch any more falling knives. Until I see clear signs of a recovery, I will continue to cautiously buy the dips, and vigorously sell the rallies. It's a bear market, until it proves it isn't. Show me.
I need to see:
1. consumer confidence up two months in a row
2. short-term interest rates low enough that the yield curve isn't flat
3. a month without anyone announcing a capex reduction
4. a couple of consecutive months of increasing bookings.
5. net inflows into stock mutual funds
6. insiders buying
7. the bad debts written off, and the companies with no viable business plans go under, in the telecom and dotcom space. A lot of demand for chips in the 1998-2000 bubble was artificial and unsustainable.
8. consumer spending go down, stabilize, and start to go up.
I have no idea when these things will happen, but I don't think they've happened yet. |
