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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner

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To: Paul A who wrote (8194)	4/10/2001 10:58:47 PM
From: Tom Hua	of 19633

Paul, it's up to 87 now. We're gonna have some fun next week over there just in time for the peak earnings season. We have another bear rally today on no particular market news, this is typical in a bear market driven by perceived short term oversold conditions and relentless guesses by investors that the bottom had been put in. Fact is a bear market does not end until market fundamentals have improved. By the way things look now, I'd say corporate earnings and outlook will get worse before they get better. There's just about no chance for a 2H recovery. Few people would deny that corporate recession is well under way, the wild card is can a real recession be avoided, ie., on the consumer level? Many think tanks have stated a recession later in the year is unavoidable. Since visibility is poor and highly uncertain, I think investors won't hear any bullish prognosis from CEOs over the next couple weeks when report cards are issued. There's just no catalyst in the pipeline to sustain any rally, all rallies will be sold into. I think there's a good chance that markets will tumble to new lows by late April/early May. Regards, Tom

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