Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Olaf Koch who started this subject	4/11/2001 11:13:39 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

API's !!! where's the talk about the API's ? ... I had a "feeling" that we weren't getting that draw as expected. The focus is transitioning between commodity prices being driven by supply stats to demand stats. The pendulum when it changes direction is surely going to over-swing in the opposite direction in due time. We are now nearing Oil storage levels to where the 1997-98 cycle rolled over & didn't come back. Let the economy continue to slow & we're going to get a contraction in commodity prices come August-ish; that no one expects imo... We've got some earnings momenteum in the drillers - as per RDC's report today - but; duhhhhh... even with the new Pru guys table pounding - RDC is red; whodathunkit ? The problem is that we're going to see lots of defensive & mo-mo players rotating funds out of oils (and what better time to sell - than into positive news ?) and rotating that money back to tech if the momenteum continues there. I want to clear the Cisco & Q1 "name" tech reporting here before getting to aggressive in deploying a lot of money into this market. The ECB's failure to cut rates led to a little softness in the EURO - golds may retrace to retest XAU 45ish; but that's a re-entry opp and in due time; the US Dollar will soften & the needed Fed Liquidity will take Gold to Kudlow & Steve Forbes et al's - proper liquidity barometer level of $340ish and that will drive the XAU thru 100+ imo. That the US DOllar will eventually soften & that the Fed's needed liquidity adds will take gold over $300 is the one thing I am most sure of in this market; patience & a little prudent trading discipline is all that is needed. PS: This NAZ/Tech celebration from the Chihuahua's mystifies me ? They chastised me for shorting CIEN back at $90 - into it's positive news and they've been buying & chasing and trying to catch a tech bottom all they way down from NAZ 3500 last Sept/Oct & now that CIEN bounces 15 points after imploding for 60; they're breaking out the pom-poms ? They bought CSCO at $35, $30, $25, $20 and now they're celebrating a $2-3 bounce ? They haven't seen a tech leg down that they haven't bought the bounce on yet ? And that's another point; they aren't buying into the abyss of the dips - to play quick trades in counter-trend rallies; they are jumping on the coat tails of the DCB/counter trend rallies, buying the breakouts & getting continually whipsawed back down; time & time & time again ? It's all in "black & white" and clearly on the record. The scorecard as I see it from when the thread-wars broke out in Sept is: Bear Market - 1900 Chihuahua's + 250 ... it seems to me the Chihuahua's need about another 1600 points just to be even and at least another 2000+ points in the NAZ before they can even begin to be celebrating, back slapping & swapping fish stories (VBG). PS S: I'd love to hear from the "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" crowd - why RDC is failing to move positively off such good earnings news & a strongly positive outlook ? ... those API's are the "WALL" for this cycle and all we need is about 2 more weeks of surprise upside adds and we're back at 1998 supply levels into a slowing economy & guess where that's going to take crude prices (and Oil Major Cap Ex spending) ? Where do you think Crude prices go - at 320+ M boe in storeage - into a STILL slowing US economy ? 320 M boe.... remember that figure & think about how close we are... The Natural Gas story is NOT enough to support the OSX going to significant new highs imo and NG prices are going to come in faster & further than many anticipate imo. While it may take 12-18 months to return to normalized supply levels - the "blue sky" upside in the NG story is history and the Chihuahua's are chasing their stubby little hairless tails here on Nat Gas... they blew it in late December & obviously so... Better to focus on the external catalysts like negative API's, the exodus of mo-mo money back to Tech etc - in which to do some trading range scalps than to beat the "10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof" drum to death and eventually be caught fully loaded, if not margined on the nest OSX blow off to 104ish; that isn't followed by a DCB; but instead is followed by a blow off to OSX 88 that also will NOT be the bottom; but will be washout dip that doesn't come back & takes out those who were mesmerized by the fundamentals & traded the sector like growth stocks - instead of cyclicals.

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