that's not true. they are comparable where it counts. both were basically the result of a too loose monetary policy during a period of disinflation. if you look at Japanese economic data at the end of '89 when their stock market bubble peaked, they were almost identical to US economic data when the stock market peaked in '00.
even the general sentiment picture was similar: in the late '80's, Japan's economy was the envy of the world.
the main differences are not particularly comforting actually: Japan had a big current account surplus, whereas the current account of the US is in a chronic, and still growing, deficit. and Japan had, and still has, a large positive savings rate, whereas the US savings rate has gone negative.
on the positive side, the US real estate bubble didn't grow quite as big as Japan's, and the demographics are somewhat more favorable too.
note btw, that Japan's larger economic cycle is traditionally leading the US cycle by about 10 years. for instance, early last century, Japan's market peak was reached in 1919, and the US market peaked in '29.
one thing i am pretty certain about is that the US economy will re-emerge from the slump quicker than Japan's...the Japanese authorities have proven particularly inept at dealing with the bust. |
