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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (13634)4/11/2001 12:56:41 PM
From: Chris J. Horne  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
re: "Why'd you pick 20% instead of 22%?

I was using investments that Bob has recommended on the air to arrive at the number. On the show, he often touts the Vanguard Total Market Index (which represents the Wilshire 5000) and to a lesser degree Spiders (SPY) and the Vanguard Index 500 fund which, of course, represent the S&P 500. The returns of these funds for the period from 1/1/2000 through 4/10/2001 were (according to my financial program):

Vanguard Total Market -21.4%
Wilshire 5000 -22.5%
SPY -20.6%
S&P 500 -20.5%

I picked 20% because I have the SPY and had those numbers readily available and did not take the time to calculate the return for the Vanguard Total Market and Wilshire 5000, which I now have. Nothing sinister.

Kirk raises the very good point that Brinker recommends having a portion in international and that likely would have made the loss greater. I agree with Kirk, but I dont pay too much attention to the intenational recommendations.

re: "Do we agree on the 32.5% QQQ money that got pummeled (he only went 65% cash. Of the 65% cash, about half of that is down 55%)?

According to Bloomberg, QQQ is down 49.1% from 10/17/2000 through 4/10/2001. As you say, this is 32.5% of the total portfolio as of 10/17/2000.

So (assuming I did this all correctly), I would say that 32.5% of the portfolio is in QQQs that are down 49.1% from 10/17/2000 through 4/10/2001.
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