A Missing Sermon From the Church of the Eternally Bullish . . . . . .
I found this on my recent sojurn to Opening Day, it must have fell out of the good Reverand Bull's (or maybe AS's) pocket who I thought I spotted at the ballpark:
Do you believe brethren? I said, DO YOU BELIEVE ?????
Ahhhh, and there is the rub. The signs are there my children but no one believes. Yes, the High Bull hasn't looked favorable upon us the last 12 months, but what do you expect after the riches he threw down upon us in the previous period.
But now my children, a sea change is upon us. The church of the almighty Fed has been on our side since January finally bringing back the Green man from the dark side. WIth 3 thunderous bolts of lightening, The church of the almighty Fed has roared and stands ready to roar even more. And yet no one believes.
For month after month, the grizzlies have gotten fat by clawing at the altar of the eternally bullish. And yet they are still hungry my children. Like many of the eternally bullish who failed to yield to the signs last spring, the slothful bears, bellys bulging, want more and more, sending short interest to record highs. And yet no one believes.
But I say it again my children, the signs are there. One must just be willing to look beyond the trees and see them. The skeptics are out, doubting every step of the action the last week - but they fail to view the signs. What signs you say ? Let the good Reverand Bull tell you
Oh my friends, look at the extreme readings on investor confidence as of late; look at the steepened yield curve; look at many of the bearish converts like Don Hays, Bob Olstein, Doug Kass and others - yes my friends, these bears were bearish before it was popular - and now they too have made a major change. And don't forget my friends, look at the ARMS index with its abnormally bullish readings on all of the exchanges; look back at the VIX and VXN and the extreme levels they have reached; and dont forget the wrath of those put/call ratios. And my friends, we must not forget the great asset allocaters who have recently started moving funds out of the house of Bonds into the house of Stocks; we also must not forget that ugly tax man who commeth - his date is now due - so those who must raise funds to appease him have now done so.
What is that you say? Still not convinced my children? What about recent breadth and up/down volume numbers which are extremely compelling; what about the fact that techs, financials and the Dow have all been moving in concert leading the way; and the dead supply of new issues. Want more evidence my friends - well just look at the absence of our former parishioners here in the Church of the eternally bullish. Many are no where to be found, others have recently moved to the dark side. And what about the bears on all the major magazine covers. No one believes.
Thats right - NO ONE BELIEVES - and that my friends is the most bullish sign of all that your good Reverand sees. In the old days, before the popularity of the Nazdaq and the internet craze, the Great Bull himself used to preach that we can't go up without climbing a wall of worries. Then friends, you know what happened. It became too easy. Anyone could buy a stock and sell it higher a day later - it was like a license to print money. So the Great Bull seeing this became upset - and fired upon us with all his wrath - which allowed the bears to come out of hibernation and start to feed once again after a long, long sleep. But now my friends, everyone wants to pray at the altar of the slothful bear. For it has become too easy for them to stuff their large stomachs. And thus, no one believes.
So even though the signs are there, most don't see them or ignore them - because they have been burnt before or need whacked across the head to have things become clearer. But that is good - we once again have back our beloved wall of worries.
Now my friends, do not let me delude you, there are still likely to be some rocky times ahead as the vast behomeths start to report their poor results and the bears, who are getting hungrier by the day become more vengeful and press their case. But that too shall pass. So the opportunity exists my friends, both in the short term swings and the longer term accumulation camps when the price is right. Take advantage of the swings to do as the great bull has always taught us - buy low, sell high. Don't chase and don't panic - and don't stick to all tech - But don't ignore the signs my friends
So now I ask, do you believe?
-----------------
Disclaimer - wow some sermon - take it for what its worth - its not often one finds these things floating in the wind :) |
