Skeeter, I am sorry to say, you don't listen to the technicals, you may right on the fundamentals, reread what I just suggested to Estephen here on April 5th:
Message 15623236
Now, today we hit $44, and between $44 and $50, short to your heart delight (I think the Euphoria will die before the end of next week). I hate it when you are right on a fundamental basis but still lose money because you don't get the psychology of this market. By the way, Joseph' rational is not that far off the spot, I just think he is about 4 months (maybe even six months) too early. The market is not interested in the current absolute conditions in the semi but is looking at when changes to the "better" might be expected, and when he finds that the conditions (like drop of 60% in order at Lam) are just as bad as it has ever been, he comes to the conclusion: "How worse can it be?" What he failed to observe is that when things are really really bad, companies layoff people left and right, marginal players go broke,. and the stronger eat the weaker. We have not seen much of that yet in the semi space as yet.
Zeev |
