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Strategies & Market Trends : Ahh Canada - 2 out of 3 ain't bad
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To: Cush who wrote (2044)4/11/2001 8:53:27 PM
From: Shack  Read Replies (1) of 5144
 
Shaw/Cush, just a comment on candlesticks, THEY NEED TO BE CONFIRMED. Once they are confirmed, they are the single most reliable tool I have found. Lots of POTENTIALLY bearish patterns today but tomorrow will be key. The COMPQ put in a potentially bearish evening star which I believe will be confirmed tomorrow.

I understand your skepticism Cush. These patterns only work when confirmed and used in the correct context:

The most abused candlestick pattern has been the "hammer bottom" which desperately needs to be confirmed when it appears, especially in bear markets. Same as the bearish shooting star in bull markets needs to be confirmed.

Another problem I find folks have with the sticks is they don't realize that they are best served as trend reversal patterns. A bearish reversal candle within a downtrend means very little for instance. Wrong context.

Lastly, the trend which they often kick off can be stopped as soon as a day later.

My road map has the Nasdaq evening star being confirmed tomorrow followed by a few more days of selling to close a gap or two, but then I expect a rally and will be looking for a bullish candlestick pattern to form in the middle of next week or towards the end. Options expiration may screw things up though.
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