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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (3227)	4/12/2001 9:04:06 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) of 23153

John, "Jim, Do you remember where you got the 40 Gigawatt number for new NG fired power supply in 2001? I have only seen 27 GWatts, but that was definitely coming online this year as opposed to possibly coming online." The number was presented to the Houston Producers Forum in Houston yesterday. The actual number was 45, not 40. The source of the study was given as Powerdat, Newgen and RDI projections. 2001 and 2002 includes 20,000 MW and 10,000 MW of single cycle peaking capacity. The $3-3.50 NG price is where they are projecting NG to stabilize for the average annual price in 2003. They projected an average price of $5.00 in 2001, and $4.00 in 2002. The reasoning is due to the high cost of incremental NG such as LNG. The source for the marginal cost of NG was El Paso Energy, EOG and Purvin & Gertz. The bottom line of the presentation was NG prices will be strong for the next two years despite a slowing economy and increasing supplies. The problem in the short run is oil. Despite the fact that world supply and demand are now close to being in balance for the first time in over 20 years, demand is falling and world inventories are rising. Jim

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