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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (1588)	4/12/2001 4:41:07 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) of 12411

From Robert Hahn: 4/12/01 "After a major breakdown in the market (like what happened to the DJIA in March) it's still in the “crash format” to expect a 50% retrace off the first reaction low, which is what we've had in the DJIA. From the January 31 high (record high in the VLE arithmetic index) we are now in trading day 49. The danger is not past until we get well past the 54th and 55th day after a record high. Crash patterns of the past have culminated around the 55th day. Also, the Arms Index in excess of 1.5 on March 22 is a historical indicator of a major market low, within 20 days. We are now in trading day 14 past the March 22 event. Day 20 is options expiration day on April 20."

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