ISO, I know you guys think that demand is going to take O&G commodities down, and with them the stocks. I do not know exactly where you get that idea, but suspect that the following article might explain it. I have tried to emphasize the part of the article that contains facts as opposed to "projections" or "guesses" by IEA. Wonder if they have ever found that 600 million barrels? Just a thought. Am 90% long O&G stocks. Demand continues to rise.
"LONDON, April 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices resumed their upward march on Thursday as worries over U.S. gasoline shortages outweighed a bearish outlook for world oil demand growth and OPEC leakage.
London Brent futures rose 39 cents to $27.35 a barrel and U.S. light crude gained 29 cents to $28.47.
Dealers said they were buying oil ahead of the Easter holiday for fear of more bullish news on U.S. gasoline supplies ahead of the summer driving season.
"The focus is still on U.S. gasoline. All other factors seem to be sidelined for the time being," said a London futures trader.
Low U.S. gasoline inventories, more than 11 million barrels below year-ago levels, have kept the heat under oil prices in recent weeks.
<<<<<Consumption of the motor fuel hit a record 8.5 million barrels a day in March, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.
In a report released on Wednesday, the EIA said U.S. consumption of crude and refined products averaged 19.5 million bpd last month, up 400,000 bpd from a year ago.
On Thursday, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said stocks of gasoline among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries by the end of February were 390 million barrels, 3.1 million less than last year's lean levels.>>>>>>>
Total OECD stocks of crude and petroleum products of 2.51 billion barrels were 56 million higher than a year ago, the IEA <estimated> in a monthly oil market report.
Gasoline concerns have countered the impact of poor discipline by OPEC member countries in sticking to tighter export limits.
LEAKING OPEC
OPEC states taking part in production restraints cut supplies by 120,000 bpd in March but still exceeded their quotas by 650,000 bpd, the IEA <estimated.>
Excluding Iraq, OPEC lowered March output to 25.85 million bpd, a level still substantially higher than the cartel's 25.2 million bpd March production ceiling.
The IEA said that in February, the first month that reductions of 1.5 million bpd were introduced, leakage by the 10 OPEC states taking part in cuts was 770,000 bpd.(a guess)
From April OPEC has agreed to slice another million bpd when the 10 are supposed to meet limits of 24.2 milloin.
The agency put total OPEC March production, including increased Iraqi supplies at 28.51 million bpd, up 410,000 bpd.
OPEC is targeting $25 a barrel for a basket of cartel crudes which on Wednesday were priced at $25.15.
The IEA revised lower its <forecast> for world oil demand growth this year, citing the impact of economic slowdown in the United States on developing nations.
It cut its <projection> for.. " |
