Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 158.70

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (9677)	4/12/2001 11:08:57 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	of 10921

Unfortunately, I don't have good data on the number of new fabs, either last year or in general. WSTS (I think) tracks global manufacturing capacity in terms of square inches of silicon. That's probably a more meaningful measure, since it includes incremental expansions to existing lines as well as new greenfield fabs. I'm not sure what your point is, though. There is a significant lag between ordering of a piece of equipment and that equipment's delivery at the customer site, and then another significant lag before the equipment is actually up and producing product wafers. Almost all new capacity that came online in calendar 2000 used equipment ordered in 1999. Equipment ordered in 2000 (and not pushed out due to the downturn) will create new capacity (and lots of it, given the number of orders) this year. In fact, this lag is part of the reason why the industry is so cyclical in the first place. The inherent delay in building a fab is longer than the horizon for accurate forecasts. Katherine

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