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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 225.18-1.5%Nov 18 3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (45399)4/13/2001 1:17:49 AM
From: Math Junkie  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
The fact that Warren Buffett is a long term investor does not mean that he has not adjusted equity holdings to reflect market outlook. I found this via Suite101.com:

Some financial gurus downplay the importance of market timing. I believe the real problem lies in the definition of terms. At one time or another, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and a number of other investment heroes have urged ordinary investors not to attempt to time the market.

I contend that their words and actions reflect what I define as market timing. Malcolm S. Forbes Jr. picked up on Buffett’s timing tendencies. “We know Buffett as a value investor but I think he’s a market timer, too ... We interviewed him (for Forbes magazine) in 1969 when he was a virtual unknown and he said the market was too high and that he was selling everything. We said, gosh, he sure called that one right. We interviewed him again in 1974 when the market had declined two-thirds in value in real terms, after inflation. He said it was time to buy and that he felt like a sex-starved man in a harem.” My personal belief is that every successful investor employs market timing. The only real difference is that some investors’ asset class exchange cycles are longer than others. Warren Buffett’s might be 20 years; a short-term trader’s might be 20 days. Most of the rest of us are somewhere in between.

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