Hi Eva and all, its late and I am depressed after the Canucks played a great game but still lost to the 'Lanche. Trying to take my mind off it now.
Anyways, I vowed that after getting whipped enough times on the short side, I would re-evaluate my bearish position and that time has come.
I am going to be buying the next dip in the Nasdaq. This wave we have had off the bottom has been far stronger than I ever would have thought and I am now thinking it is the beginning of a large correction of the September decline.
What essentially this means is that IMO, we are in the very early stages of a move that, while corrective in nature, will probably retrace minimum 38.2% of the September decline which brings us back to 2600. It may even retrace 50% of the decline which will take us back to 3000. It will take many weeks and won't be straight up but I think that is what is going on here.
Allan if you're reading this, I think you mentioned this scenario in passing via PM. I now believe this to be the case and that the September downwave did indeed complete at 1620 or whatever the low was on April 4th which was right around that major cycle turn heinz was talking about. I think we are in a 1 of 5 of a, which is nearing completion, although I have a sneaking suspicion it is not quite done yet. I am targetting 2050 for the end of this move and won't be going short until then. This level closes the March 12 gap and gives this move a nice clean 5. I will be trying to get long for this move on Monday.
Make no mistake, this is not a new bull move but it sure will feel like one. Once we get to the mid to high 2000's, I think we begin a long nasty slide which will break all the lows and finally get that long awaited capitulation that the bears have been waiting for.
I reserve the right to be completely off base but my last road map made a wrong turn at Albequerqe and I need a new one.
There is still lots of doubt surrounding this rally and the coming "2" correction back to the low 1800's in this move will reinforce the doubt. This doubt ensures the rally continues. The Ameritrade index has retail investors selling into this rally which is another contrarian indicator for me.
The thing about this scenario, is I won't know if its valid until after we get the next retracement back to the low 1800's. At that point we will likely begin another up regardless if I'm right or wrong but if I am wrong, when it fizzles out it will turn hard down and we break to new lows.(Allan, this was mine and BC's previous scenario).
Either way I would buy the next major dip. Allan, heinz has a cycle turn happening on the 23rd or so and I am thinking that this is around when this low comes in.
I don't know how I play this yet but I may just use the QQQ options as my trading vehicle. I am too scared to hold individual stocks overnight.
For you NT'ers, I think its entirely possible that it gets back to $40 but this is getting a little ahead of myself
Hope y'all have a Good Friday-g
Cheers
Shack |
