Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 162.25

-1.7%

Nov 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9687)	4/13/2001 6:51:26 AM
From: w0z	Read Replies (3) of 10921

Intel knows, in near real-time, what end-demand for their products is. Does that make their decision-making quicker or better? Are you saying it doesn't? Have you ever tried to forecast end-user demand through multiple levels of distribution? Pre-JIT and realtime MRP, Intel might not know end-user demand decreased due to delays and inventory buffers in the distribution system. Somehow this discussion went from my point that the recovery could be as fast as the decline (if this is an inventory problem and not a long term decline in demand) to saying realtime end-user demand information is useless for decision making. In fact, Intel could also believe the recovery may be as rapid as the decline and is choosing to leave their capex plans in place for that reason. If demand is increasing again, as some recent reports about DRAM have indicated, Intel already knows this. If Intel does not believe there has been a long-term fundamental change in demand for their products, they are using this as an opportunity to gain strategic advantage by keeping their plans in place. They could be wrong but I would not bet on it.

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