Thanks, scary reading!
More thoughts and found posts.......
By L3_Aka_L3 on Friday, April 13, 2001 - 07:44 am: Edit
EDIT to my earlier post. As of yesterday, MSFT is now 9.88% of the NDX weighting. WOW!!! Talk about having all your eggs in one basket!
Charts except for 3 line are updated.
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From: Frederick Langford Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 9:47 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 8356
This looks bad for QCOM:
China's 3G mobile technology debuts
Apr 12 2001 10:58AM
Homeway
China's domestically developed and patented third
generation (3G) mobile telecoms technology was tested for the first time by the public in Beijing yesterday, China Daily The successful 'first call' of the mobile technology
significantly sharpened the country's competitive edge on the international telecoms market.
TD-SCDMA (Time Division Synchronous Code Division Mmultiple Access), one of the three 3G mobile telecoms
technologies, was raised by the Chinese Academy of Telecommunications Technology (CATT).
The two other 3G systems, WCDMA and CDMA2000, were raised by European and US companies respectively.
Datang Telecoms, a subsidiary of the CATT, and its German partner Siemens, invested billions of RMB in the research and development of the system.
The question that now faces Chinese mobile operators is which 3G technology they will adopt.
China has become the world's second largest mobile telecoms market, with 85 million users at the end of 2000, according to statistics from the Ministry of Information Industry (MII).
The market will keep on expanding, as the number of users is expected to reach 1.2 billion worldwide this year.
Given the huge market, the operators are naturally concerned as to which 3G technology is to be chosen, as there are huge potential profits involved.
China's TD-SCDMA is the youngest of the three systems, with a history of only two years. Some telecoms companies therefore said it was immature.
"None of the three systems could be called fully mature. Our country has not yet developed its own technology to make 3G phones,'' said Li Shihe, senior researcher with the CATT.
He expected the 3G mobile phone that support the
TD-SCDMA will make debut next year.
Li, also known as the "father of TD-SCDMA,'' said the technology will be fully mature within two years.
He said TD-SCDMA would allow for a smooth transition from the present GSM (global system for mobile communications) to 3G technology and would fully utilize GSM equipment, which supports more than 99% of China's 85 million mobile phone users at present.
Siemens, Datang's German partner in the 3G
communications field, said it is confident in TD-SCDMA and will further increase investment in the project.
The Chinese Government is still considering which 3G system it will adopt. The decision will not be made before 2002, according to the MII.
TD-SCDMA, the only domestically invented system, is likely to be adopted, but it is not yet sure to what degree it will be used, said Yu Xiangguo, senior vice-president of Siemens China.
A TD-SCDMA forum to back the development of the system was held in Beijing at the end of last year.
All the major domestic and international telecoms
equipment manufacturers took part in the forum and showed their support of the new technology.
Copyright (c)2001 Beijing Homeway Info.Media Ltd.All Rights Reserved
chinaweb.com.
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04/12 17:41
Rivals Say Joseph's Chip Call Too Early: Call of Day (Update2)
By Danielle Sessa
New York, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- With the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 29 percent in a week and Salomon Smith Barney Inc.'s Jonathan Joseph saying it's time to buy again, bearish chip analysts are on the defensive.
Lehman Brothers Inc.'s Daniel Niles, who published a seven- page report Monday predicting a further slide for semiconductor stocks, reiterated that call today in a four-paragraph note. Joseph Osha of Merrill Lynch & Co. told clients the slide in chip sales is picking up speed.
``We think that a bottom to semiconductor industry fundamentals is still at least a quarter away, and would advise against going overweight in semiconductor stocks right now,'' Osha wrote in a report.
The reports from Osha and Niles show that Joseph's upgrade yesterday of semiconductor stocks is setting the agenda for now on Wall Street. With the stocks rallying, Niles and other analysts will feel pressure to follow Joseph in recommending chip shares, investors say.
Joseph said the semiconductor business is so bad, it can't get much worse. He raised his ratings on eight chip stocks, including Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc., and helped spark an 8.5 percent rally in the Philadelphia semiconductor index.
The index climbed another 6 percent today to 597.92, which is still down 55 percent from its peak of 13 months ago. Micron Technology Inc. rose $4.81 to $46.41, Novellus Systems Inc. gained $4.23 to $48.23 and Applied Materials Inc. rallied $3.44 to $49.47.
`Sitting on Their Hands'
``When one guy comes out and makes a call and the stocks are moving and everyone else is sitting on their hands, they get beat up by their own research directors saying, `Stocks are moving, what are you going to do about it?','' said Ken Tyszko, a portfolio manager at Oberweis Asset Management, which has $200 million in assets. He said he's not yet ready to buy semiconductor shares.
Niles isn't changing his mind. This week's chip rally looks like the 37 percent surge in the semiconductor index, known as the Sox, from mid-December to the end of January, he said in a report.
That advanced faded, ``with new lows being set,'' he wrote today. ``We believe this rally will suffer the same fate.'' The latest signs of weakening demand for chips include further signs of deterioration since his report earlier this week including Motorola's $500 million inventory write-off and falling memory chip prices, he said.
Niles said on Monday that semiconductor sales this year are likely to post their biggest decline on record and told investors to wait until October to buy. He's ranked the No. 2 chip analyst by money managers in Institutional Investor magazine's annual survey.
Still Too High
Osha said he doesn't see semiconductor shares bottoming until June or July. The stocks are still more expensive than during the last semiconductor slumps, in 1996 to 1998, and if revenue falls further, the shares will fall further, said Osha.
The companies in the Philadelphia index sell for 19 times recent earnings, versus a low of 9 in 1996.
Osha predicted the semiconductor index could slide to 400, which would be a 33 percent drop from its current level. He, like Joseph, was a runner-up last year in the magazine survey.
Joseph's call prompted a response from his competitors in part because he made a splash last year when he advised investors to sell. The benchmark chip index slid 51 through Tuesday after that call.
Mark Edelstone of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., the top- ranked semiconductor analyst, didn't return a call.
Other analysts also panned chip stocks today. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. analyst Eric Chen lowered his recommendations on communication-chip makers Applied Micro Circuits Corp., Vitesse Semiconductor Corp. and PMC-Sierra Inc.
``We do not believe these stocks represent a compelling value,'' Chen wrote in a report, ``given the lack of strong demand in communications equipment markets.''
He predicted the inventory surplus would clear up by the third quarter as customers work through existing components.
Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Michael Masdea made bearish comments about analog semiconductors. While January and February were the worst two months ever for the industry, things are going to get worse, Masdea said.
Analog-chip stocks historically bottom when the group trades at a price-earnings ratio that's 40 percent below the overall PE ratio for the semiconductor industry, Masdea said. Analog stocks now sell for 20 percent above the broader chip universe, he said.
While time will tell which analyst made the right call, some investors appreciate recommendations like Joseph's that buck the consensus.
``It's sort of a bold stroke for an analyst to go out on a limb like that,'' said Scott Vergin, a fund manager at The Lutheran Brotherhood Inc. in Minneapolis, who oversees about $4 billion. ``For portfolio managers, we would rather see an analyst take a stand than report what's on the table.''
quote.bloomberg.com
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Rambus misses
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Computer memory chip specialist Rambus Inc. on
Thursday reported a second-quarter profit that failed to meet Wall Street
expectations due to falling prices and pending litigation.
Excluding one-time expenses and acquisition costs, Los Altos, Calif.-based
Rambus (RMBS: Research, Estimates) reported second-quarter pro forma net
income of $8.2 million, or 8 cents a diluted share, compared with $13.2 million,
or 4 cents a share, for the same time period last year.
Earnings tracker First Call had expected a profit of 11 cents a share.
Rambus licenses its memory chip
design, the Rambus Dynamic Random
Access Memory (RDRAM), which
speeds up computer memory systems
by speeding the exchange of data
between computer's memory banks and
their surrounding support-logic chips.
Revenue for Rambus climbed 49 percent
to $31.2 million from $15.7 million in the second quarter of 2000. Contract
revenue dropped 38 percent to $7.6 million from $12.2 million during the same
period. Operating income more than doubled to $11.1 million, from $5 million in
the second quarter 2000.
The company cited the effects of declining SDRAM prices and costs associated
with defending its intellectual property for the shortfall, said Rambus CEO Geoff
Tate in a statement.
"Royalties on SDRAM-compatible ICs declined in the second fiscal quarter due
mainly to a reduction in average selling prices (ASPs). We expect this trend to
continue and in fact to accelerate in the next quarter because SDRAM ASPs
declined in the latest quarter by an estimated 50 percent sequentially," Tate
said.
Check on other chip stocks
Tate anticipates an overall drop in total revenue from current licensees next
quarter of 20 percent.
Rambus is mired in litigation against Hyundai and Micron in Europe and against
memory chipmaker Infineon Technologies (IFX: up $3.12 to $43.12, Research,
Estimates) in the United States. The company expects decisions in some of
the cases in the next quarter. Rambus claims Infineon infringed on its patents in
the design of some of its products.
Shares for Rambus fell $1.29 to $19.53 ahead of the earnings report. In
after-hours trading on Instinet, Rambus shares dropped another $1.28 to
$18.25.
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DoubleClick warns
Internet ad firm sees wider losses for 2Q and full year
cnnfn.cnn.com
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Japan downgrades economic outlook
Report says economy weakens for third straight month
ASSOCIATED PRESS
TOKYO, April 13 — An official report issued by the
Cabinet Office says Japan’s economy is getting
weaker and hopes for a recovery from a nearly
decade-long slump are dimming.
msnbc.com
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From: John L. Thursday, Apr 12, 2001 11:44 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 69881
Interesting Read: (sorry if this has been posted already)
Research In Motion Investment Income Raises Question (Update1)
By Sean B. Pasternak and Cheryl Devoe Kim
Waterloo, Ontario, April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Research In Motion Ltd.'s financial report is raising questions among some analysts, who said the company's profit margins are narrowing and that the company's profit came mainly from investment income.
The maker of the BlackBerry pager, which lets people send and receive e-mails, said yesterday that fiscal fourth-quarter profit from operations more than doubled to $8.3 million from net income of $3.2 million in the year-earlier period.
Results in the latest quarter include $11.2 million in investment income, up from $3 million a year earlier.
``Where did they make their money from?'' said Ross Healy, head of Strategic Analysis Corp., which provides advice on Canadian and U.S. markets to large investors such as pension funds. ``They made it from investment income.''
Healy said earnings before investment income as a percentage of sales fell to 2.1 percent from 7.3 percent a year earlier. The company's gross margin dropped to 38.2 percent from 39.8 percent.
``Their costs went up and their operating margins plummeted,'' Healy said. ``When you rip the numbers apart the operations aren't quite as impressive.''
Research In Motion officials weren't immediately available to comment.
Scotia Capital Inc. analyst John D'Angelo expects about 80 percent of the 37 cents a share he estimates Research In Motion will earn in its current fiscal year will come from investment income.
Research In Motion had $722 million in cash and marketable securities on Feb. 28. The company raised C$888 million ($568 million) in an October stock sale.
Shares of Research In Motion rose $6.42, or 29 percent, to $28.35 in U.S. trading. They've dropped 65 percent this year.
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By Damien Cave
April 12, 2001 | It's 1999, the stock market is climbing and a San Francisco hip-hop artist wants to get in. The 31-year-old -- call him "Justin" since he prefers anonymity -- doesn't have any extra cash, but he does have credit cards. He writes a Visa check, opens a Charles Schwab account and gets to work.
At first, he doesn't spend much money. He invests $2,000 in an Internet music start-up, cashing out when it returns almost twice its value. But soon, the easy money of the market becomes too attractive to pass up. Justin ratchets up the stakes. He aims for highflying quick hits -- mostly dot-coms -- and by the middle of 2000, he has used a dozen credit cards to buy $70,000 in stock.
the rest is at
salon.com
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3 Line charts now updated.
Tuesday CPI data will be released along with housing starts and Indu production. Wednesday is leading indicators.
We get earnings from numerous bank stocks Monday and Tuesday. I will ditch my longs FOR SURE by Monday's close! IBM reports, then Tuesday PM INTC reports and Thursday MSFT reports. To hairy for my blood.
Wow nothing to do tonight or tomorrow morning. Now what will I do to kill time? -ggg-
I owe, I owe, it's off to work I go......
Good Luck,
Lee |
