Final thoughts (promise)...any comments anyone- appreciated..
To:L3_aka_L3 who wrote (5753)
From: JRI Friday, Apr 13, 2001 9:18 AM
Respond to of 93799
Looking back at the November rally, and the January rally....
I looked at 7 top (former) "high-flyers" (BRCM, ITWO, CHKP, BEAS, SEBL, JNPR, CIEN) and the Soxx and BTK...
I wanted to measure % moves from daily low to daily high..
For those 7 stocks mentioned, for November, the range was from 53% (JNPR) to 79% (CHKP), and for January, from 43% (JNPR) to 74% (CIEN)....
Since the up move started Wednesday a week ago, the range is 63.25% (CIEN) to 95% (BEAS)...
So, already, this move has equaled the moves in November and January on a % basis for the high-flyers..
The other interesting point was that, for the most part, at around 80 %, the moves seems to end (exception being BEAS move recently)....most of the moves were in the 60-70% range.....as said, we are already there (this go round) for all of the "high-flys" mentioned....
In November, Soxx moved around 36%, low-to-high....and in Jan. around 27%....so far, its been a 31% move (approx.)
In November, BTK moved about 27%, low-to-high....and in January, around 35%.....this time around, approx. 25%..
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Conclusions: Looks like this move should peter out soon, if indeed it is of the nature of the 2 previous corrective moves.....the Soxx could run maybe a little further, and the BTK too...but not much....The highflyers have already made an enormous move.....
If we go much above the % moves (for the previous corrections), it would raise questions like: Are we correcting something bigger than the downmove from Jan.?
Are, perhaps, 5 waves down now complete....and we are only in the A of a A-B-C correction (Sept.- March), etc...
Any thoughts appreciated....(Question again: Wouldn't %'s be more valid than absolute numbers here?) |
