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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: kodiak_bull who started this subject4/13/2001 9:48:41 AM
From: CommanderCricket  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
For all you techie's out there, let me drop you another item from ground zero.

I have been working on putting together a global supply agreement with Jabil. Spent the last couple of weeks going through the BOM's and pricing for several large programs. When we submitted our RFQ, Jabil notified us that they had enough inventory for the rest of year. We are a speciality supplier that manufacturers sole source product and lots of commodity product.

When I looked at their current inventory, I about came out of my chair.

This isn't over next quarter. It's going to take till 1 Qtr of 2002 before we see any growth. CSCO, NT, etc.. and the EMS providers can't continue to sell at their current P/E's. There is negative growth this year. It's amazing in hindsight that these companies have held up as well as they have.

You'll see Cisco at $10 this year.

The problem I have in trading this is that no one is really talking about how bad the inventory problem is. I've looked around and it's generally treated as a 1 quarter issue. Therefore you continue to get weeks like we had this week.

I'm comfortable in the patch because of earnings growth. I'm not comfortable trading tech. I made few nice swing trades since January, buy in general had my head handed to me.

Have a great holiday everyone
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