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To: Boplicity who wrote (12633)	4/13/2001 12:32:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) of 13572

I agree with PBullMan on upcoming shorting opp you put it well with the 3 points distinguishing today from February but I believe we are about to swallow a critical false lure and this false lure will distinguish spring/summer from the winter 2ND HALF RECOVERY is beginning to be a bought concept it was the consensus in winter, widely accepted it was shaken to the core by late March with a spate of dreadful corporate outlooks but only a handful of economists have spoken from the mountain in the last two weeks, 2nd Half Recovery is being revived Amazon now is given credibility for profitable Q4 Nortel now is spreading the word of shrinking inventory RFMicro now is beating chest over stronger Nokia chip demand SOX index is loudly proclaiming recovery in chip sector BKS index (banks) is showing strength on the other hand of reality, Consumer Confidence declined in March that was just reported Retail Spending declined in March that was just reported Unemployment Applications went up, even in service sector that was reported last week the market ignored all these reality factors if Dow continues toward 10,500 if Naz continues toward 2200 we may have a very large shorting opp akin to February Jack Welch of GE thinks consumer spending hits the wall by summer when all the layoffs hit in unison Welch expects a 2nd Half Recession my thinking is aligned with Big Jack from UMass if 2ND HALF RECOVERY is swallowed, then upchucked violently you have an equivalent shorting opp comments welcome from Frenchy esp on how far Naz might run up thank you / JW p.s. I am a CH away from beginning new job at consulting firm a new chapter

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