Sorry, last post today on this, I promise (since its a holiday)...
Ok Shack....let me get a little abusive with a few EW questions..
Until recently, I was operating under the assumption that the Sept-Jan. was Wave 1 (DOWN), Jan 2.-Jan eod was Wave 2 (UP), and EOD Jan.-April was Wave 3....
But Wave 3s are supposed to be the longest wave (right?)....and the recently completed (if that's the case), Jan-April downwave 3.....well, its shorter (% wise and absolute numbers)...around 43% vs. 45% or so for Wave 1 down (I don't remember the exact September top...I believe about 4200....I don't think any point difference changes the % argument)...
Anyway, it got me thinking: Is there any way that Wave 1 was the March-April 2000 (Down), April-Sept, Wave 2 (UP), Sept.-Jan. Wave 3 (Down), Jan., Wave 4 (UP), and late Jan.-early April, Wave 5 (Down)? That would be a weird, wacky structure, no?
On a chart is doesn't look likely.....Wave 1 only 3-4 weeks, Wave 2 involves a retest, and a double top pattern..etc...but the % numbers give you a Wave 1 that is close to equaling Wave 5, and a 3 that's the longest.....also Wave 2 and Wave 4 are close....The raw % numbers make the argument look much better than the chart.
Certainly, the Sept-Jan, and Jan-April downwaves look much more symetrical on a chart perspective, and look like they belong to the same pattern, as if another leg down should be coming...however....
Then, I would think that.....if the recent 2890-1623 wave down is a WAVE 3....we still must be in it (no?)..and it still has a ways to go (on the downside, to complete Wave 3) and soon.....Given the breaks this past week....I am finding it hard to see how we get to continuation in that Jan.-April down pattern from here.....We've pretty much blown permanently from it....
Is there any way that Wave 3 (Down) can be shorter than Wave
1 (Down), %-wise, or do you have a different count altogether?
Note: If Wave 3 was already longer than Wave 1 (or if having a shorter Wave 3 was acceptable), I'd be (much) more confortable in thinking that current action is a Wave 4 Correction (A-B-C vs. something else)...
If we have completed 5 Waves Down...then that down pattern has pretty much ended, no? But wouldn't that signal some prett good upside to come, (even) the end of the bear?
What's your Impulse Wave thing all about here?
(Sorry if you've addressed this already today....I haven't finished reading the thread before posting this...feel free not to respond if your previous posts nailed it..) |
