Andrew,
LRCX - You asked "why it's getting crammed" on Stock Swap
thread. I thought that this is a better thread to
answer your question. :-)
LRCX is in a big transition. I will not comment
on Lam's position in the etch and CVD (?) areas. I think
it's pretty solid, but I'm no expert. However, everybody knows
that they have margin and inventory problems. The new
management might be able to address these problems but it
will take at least two quarters starting from August, when
the merger is finalized.
ONTK merger gives LRCX an entry to the CMP market.
However, the entry is questionable. Mr. Sam on SFAM
thread believes that AMAT and SFAM will be
the only survivors in the CMP area. Note that he
even discards IPEC that currently sells CMP tools to Intel.
It seems that ONTK machines are too little, too late.
So, the management of LRCX will have at least three
jobs on their hands: improving their current product margins,
integrating ONTK into LRCX, and trying to develop ONTK's
CMP business. This seems to be an overload even for
very capable management. I don't see them producing
spectacular results for at least three quarters.
That's why company's so cheap. On the other hand, the
bad news might be sufficiently discounted.
Disclaimer: I am no expert in the semi-equip area.
I just posted my own interpretation of the second-hand smoke
(oops, knowledge :-)). It might be hazardous to your finances.
Good luck
Raimondas
|
