Well, I think you're certainly right that real-time data helps in making a lot of business decisions. I'm not saying it's useless. If you believe that the downturn in Intel's business is an inventory-only problem, then we could get that sharp V-shaped downturn, like in 1998. If demand among end-users holds steady or goes up, then the semis may have already seen the bottom, and the stocks could be "off to the races" before year-end.
As far as how long this downturn lasts, and whether Intel's capex gamble is a winner, I guess it depends on what you mean by "longterm". I think we're looking at a 1973-type recession coming up, but that will not change the decades-long secular growth in chip demand. So, I see the chip inventories getting cleared out, but demand declining (a lot longer, and a lot more than it already has). So, the stocks continue going down, even after the channels get un-stuffed. This is a macro call, and I could easily be wrong. I was wrong, in the summer and fall of 2000, expecting a soft landing, and I may be wrong now, expecting 2-4 quarters of negative GDP growth in front of us. |
