BTB out 4/23
reports at: dom.semi.org
A few opinions:
1. bookings are a more useful number to follow than the BTB
2. I think the general expectation is that bookings will continue to decline, for at least the next 3 reports. So, lower bookings in the next report are in the stocks already. The debate is when bookings trough. The bulls think bookings will trough this summer. The bears think bookings won't trough till 2002. I lean to the bearish view, but am willing to be convinced if I see some evidence (rather than just HopesAndPrayers) for the bullish case.
3. All the semi-equips were 10-baggers from the 1998 low to the 2000 top. Lots of people who should be on Ritalin, are expecting a repeat of that performance, on the next upcycle. Ain't gonna happin', but it means any hint of a whiff of a hope that the bottom is in, and these stocks go up 40%, like they did in January.
4. the above makes these great trading stocks right now, and lousy investments.
5. I'm still expecting every semi-equip to set new lows, sometime this year. As they closed yesterday at the top of their trading ranges, every one is a good short. And, if they break above their trading ranges, I would still short them, in widely-spaced increments, no matter how high they go. It will all be given back. |
