Well, if measuring him against perfection floats your boat, I guess that's a personal decision. If you went 80% cash, more power to you. What you're basically saying is that you're a better market timer than Brinker. If so, I'm happy for you. On the other hand, if you can show me a publicly available investment advisory service that achieves such results consistently, I would like to hear about it. I'm not just making a rhetorical argument here, I really want to know.
For most people, the alternative is to either use some form of market timing, or buy-and-hold. Most people do not have access to a market timing method that goes to 100% cash at the beginning of every bear market, and to 100% equities at the beginning of every bull. That is why I say that using perfection as the bench mark is simply misleading.
There are really two decisions to be made: should one use market timing, and if so which timing method or service.
The issue, when deciding to use market timing or not, is whether market timing is better than buy-and-hold.
The issue, when choosing one market timing method over another, is which has the better performance in both bull and bear markets. If you can show me a method or service that does better, I will be seriously interested in evaluating it. |
