What you are saying makes a lot of sense.
At times, I view T/A as a "self inflicted "prophecy" (or wound you may say -gg-), since there are so many traders out there following it.
Having said that, I believe that there are times when the "herd mentality" participants overrun the "technical traders" and the result is situations like the current one in which, (as I have read some), nothing has changed from the fundamentals, debt levels, recession possibilities etc. etc.
This is why I have switched from having a mentality of position trader (more of a mid term --profit objective oriented--), to a mercenary, (take no prisoners), day-trader. In other words, I am not good enough to anticipate what side of the maniacs will prevail and establish a trend, which for now, although it is down, there are enough violent reactions that does not warrant "staying with it".
For me, it has been, and continue to be a learning process that I try to "perfect" every day as I go. SOmetimes I get it right, and sometimes I make mistakes. The most important thing above everything else has been two things:
1. Take losses quickly, they will always be smaller and allows me to re-position.
2. Diversify in positions, attempting NOT to take sizeable SINGLE positions hoping for a grand slam, because if I am wrong, (and even if I take the loss quickly), it will be my portfolio that WILL get SLAMED.
The smaller wins, overall, will add up and keep me profitable. I call it, the sand and gravel trades, a little here, a little there, soon the sand and gravel will add up to a mountain, the key is keep adding it every day.
Obviously discipline is the most important attribute in order to achieve the above... THIS is where I fail, as I tend to forget my own rules, once trading begins and I am under the heat of battle... slowly I am controlling the beast (me). |
